According to well-known on-chain analyst ZachXBT, the upcoming repayments from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange are likely to result in short-term sell pressure on Bitcoin, but mainly from those with weaker conviction.
The Mt. Gox cold wallet recently transferred 140,000 Bitcoin—worth over $9 billion—within three hours on July 16, indicating preparations for the repayments.
ZachXBT suggests that the repayment news will primarily impact holders with the least confidence, often referred to as “paper hands” in crypto terminology. As a result, the repayments are expected to lead to temporary volatility in Bitcoin’s price.
In a July 16 post on X (formerly Twitter), ZachXBT commented:
“I expect the less committed holders to react to the initial large transfers of 5k BTC+ to exchanges. Moves on the blockchain itself won’t have much effect.”
While large sell-offs can influence Bitcoin’s price, it’s important to note that Bitcoin has recently recovered from a prolonged downtrend, partly due to the German government exhausting its Bitcoin reserves for sale.
Summary Review: Mt. Gox repayments are expected to create short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin, mainly from less committed holders. While the large Bitcoin transfers are notable, they will likely cause temporary market fluctuations rather than a long-term price shift. Bitcoin has recently shown resilience, recovering from a previous downtrend, partly due to changes in institutional selling activity.
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