Research by Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin miners have significantly less impact on BTC price movements compared to Bitcoin ETFs and exchanges.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” analytics firm Glassnode debunked the belief that Bitcoin miners are driving markets lower.
Exchanges and ETFs Hold More Market Power
Despite challenges following the latest block reward halving, Bitcoin miners are not the primary drivers of BTC price action. Instead, Glassnode’s analysis highlights that centralized exchanges and U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange–traded funds (ETFs) hold the most significant sway over BTC price movements.
As of July 2024, exchanges still hold over 3 million BTC, while ETFs manage 887,000 BTC in assets. In contrast, miner–affiliated wallets contain around 705,000 BTC.
Glassnode elaborated, “Historically, large coin holdings have often ended up with market-agnostic entities, such as the Mt.Gox trustee or government law enforcement agencies that periodically sell off seized coins. More recently, institutional custodians and ETFs have entered the market. The suite of 11 new US spot ETFs now collectively holds 887K BTC, making their combined balance the second largest Bitcoin pool we monitor.”
Miners Seeing Improved Conditions
On a positive note for miners, the future may already be looking brighter. Bitcoin’s hashrate has been attempting to reach new all-time highs over the past week. The hash ribbons indicator, which measures the 60-day and 30-day rolling hashrate, suggests that profitability conditions are gradually improving, despite indicating an ongoing miner “capitulation” phase.
Onchain data platform Bitcoin is Data shared on X, “The faster-moving average is growing again and will soon surpass the slower one. This means that the total hashrate, which is correlated with the price, has started to grow again.”
Summary Review: While Bitcoin miners have less influence on BTC price movements than ETFs and exchanges, the ongoing improvements in mining conditions could signal a positive shift for the industry.
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