Analysts at Bernstein, a prominent research and brokerage firm, have forecasted that Bitcoin’s price could surge to nearly $200,000 by the end of 2025, largely driven by significant inflows into spot U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since their approval earlier this year. This updated prediction is an increase from their previous target of $150,000.
The Bernstein analysts based their projection on the assumption that spot Bitcoin ETFs could account for about 7% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply by the end of 2025.
“We anticipate that Bitcoin ETFs will soon be approved for major financial institutions and large private banks in the third and fourth quarters of this year,” wrote Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra in a note to clients.
They described the institutional basis trade as a “Trojan Horse” for wider adoption, noting that institutional investors are currently evaluating net long positions in Bitcoin. According to the analysts, about 80% of current spot Bitcoin ETF flows come from self-directed retail investors using broker platforms, while institutional involvement remains in its early stages.
“ETFs have collectively brought in around $15 billion in net new flows,” the analysts observed. “We anticipate that Bitcoin ETFs will represent approximately 7% of the circulating Bitcoin supply by 2025 and about 15% by 2033.”
Bernstein’s analysts predict that the assets under management (AuM) for spot Bitcoin ETFs could reach around $190 billion by the peak of the market in 2025 and soar to $3 trillion by 2033.
They also suggest that Bitcoin’s price has entered a new bull market cycle, spurred by the recent Bitcoin halving event, which typically reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created and thus lowers the supply available in the market.
“We believe Bitcoin is in a new bull cycle,” the analysts stated. “The ‘halving’ creates a unique situation where the selling pressure from miners is cut in half, or even more as they hold back inventory in anticipation of higher prices. This, combined with new catalysts for Bitcoin demand, can lead to significant price increases.”
Summary Review: Bernstein’s optimistic forecast hinges on the increasing adoption and approval of Bitcoin ETFs, along with the natural market dynamics introduced by Bitcoin’s halving events, setting the stage for potential exponential price growth in the coming years.
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