A U.S. federal appeals court has allowed Kalshi, a derivatives exchange, to list event contracts related to U.S. election results, despite objections from regulators. This decision was made in an October 2 court ruling.
Court Ruling
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which had tried to prevent Kalshi from offering derivatives based on political events, just ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Impact on Election Prediction Markets
This ruling could open the door for election prediction markets, including Web3 platforms like Polymarket, to operate in the U.S. As of October 2, Polymarket reported that over $1 billion is already being wagered on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Summary Review: The court’s decision to allow Kalshi to list contracts based on election outcomes paves the way for election prediction markets to become more active in the U.S. This ruling could also benefit platforms like Polymarket, potentially boosting participation in such markets as the U.S. presidential election approaches.
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